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FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 25

Bundesliga - Gameweek 25

Saturday, 7 Mar 2026 • 15:30

FSV Mainz 05

2 : 2

VfB Stuttgart

Goals

Jae-Sung Lee
1 : 0
39'
39'Jae-Sung Lee
1 : 0
76'
1 : 1
Ermedin Demiro...
1 : 1
Ermedin Demirović76'
77'
1 : 2
Deniz Undav
1 : 2
Deniz Undav77'
Danny da Costa
2 : 2
90'
90'Danny da Costa
2 : 2

Game Review

In a thrilling Bundesliga encounter, FSV Mainz 05 and VfB Stuttgart played out a 2-2 draw on Saturday, 7 March 2026. The match was a rollercoaster of emotions, with both teams exchanging blows in a game that saw late drama unfold. The result, while perhaps not entirely unexpected given the teams' mid-table standings, showcased the resilience and attacking prowess of both sides. The game began with Mainz taking the lead in the 39th minute through Jae-Sung Lee (GAP +1.4%), who capitalized on a defensive lapse to put the hosts ahead. Stuttgart, however, responded with vigor in the second half. Ermedin Demirović (GAP +1.2%) leveled the score in the 76th minute, and just a minute later, Deniz Undav (GAP +4.5%) completed a quickfire double to give Stuttgart the lead. Mainz, undeterred by the sudden turnaround, pushed forward in search of an equalizer. Their persistence paid off in the 90th minute when Danny da Costa (GAP +1.7%) found the back of the net, ensuring the points were shared. Tactically, both teams made several changes from their previous lineups. Mainz's manager opted for a fresh approach, bringing in Nikolas Veratschnig, Nelson Weiper, Silas Katompa Mvumpa, Armindo Sieb, and William Bøving as substitutes. Stuttgart's head coach also shuffled his pack, introducing Ramon Hendriks, Tiago Tomás, Nikolas Nartey, Jeremy Arévalo, and Finn Jeltsch during the match. These changes injected energy into the game, particularly in the second half. The draw leaves both teams in a similar position in the Bundesliga table, with Mainz and Stuttgart continuing their battle for a top-half finish. Mainz will be encouraged by their fighting spirit, while Stuttgart will rue the missed opportunity to secure all three points after taking the lead late in the game. Post-match reactions highlighted the competitive nature of the match, with both managers praising their teams' efforts. The result keeps both clubs in the hunt for a strong finish to the season, as they look to build momentum in the coming weeks.

Lineups

FSV Mainz 05

PosPlayer
GK
Daniel Batz
DEF
Danny da Costa
DEF
Silvan Widmer
DEF
Stefan Posch
DEF
Phillipp Mwene
MID
Dominik Kohr
MID
Jae-Sung Lee
MID
Paul Nebel
MID
Kaishu Sano
FWD
Sheraldo Becker
FWD
Phillip Tietz

Substitutes

74'Silas Katompa Mvumpafor Sheraldo Becker
85'Nelson Weiperfor Silvan Widmer
90'William Bøvingfor Paul Nebel
90'Nikolas Veratschnigfor Danny da Costa
90'Armindo Siebfor Jae-Sung Lee

VfB Stuttgart

PosPlayer
GK
Alexander Nübel
DEF
Julian Chabot
DEF
Maximilian Mittelstädt
DEF
Atakan Karazor
DEF
Lorenz Assignon
DEF
Luca Jaquez
MID
Chris Führich
MID
Jamie Leweling
MID
Angelo Stiller
FWD
Ermedin Demirović
FWD
Deniz Undav

Substitutes

65'Nikolas Narteyfor Lorenz Assignon
75'Finn Jeltschfor Luca Jaquez
75'Tiago Tomás
for Chris Führich
84'Jeremy Arévalofor Deniz Undav
84'Ramon Hendriksfor Maximilian Mittelstädt
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
4VfB Stuttgart2514565034+1647
L
W
D
W
D
15FSV Mainz 052559112941-1224
W
L
D
D
D

Last Games

FSV Mainz 05

@Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1 - 1
vsHamburger SV
1 - 1
@Borussia Dortmund
0 - 4
vsFC Augsburg
2 - 0
@RB Leipzig
2 - 1

VfB Stuttgart

vsVfL Wolfsburg
4 - 0
@FC Heidenheim
3 - 3
vs1. FC Köln
3 - 1
@St. Pauli
1 - 2
vsSC Freiburg
1 - 0

Head-to-Head

07 Mar 2026
FSV Mainz 052 - 2VfB Stuttgart
07 Mar 2026FSV Mainz 05
2 - 2
VfB Stuttgart
26 Oct 2025
VfB Stuttgart2 - 1FSV Mainz 05
26 Oct 2025VfB Stuttgart
2 - 1
FSV Mainz 05
25 Jan 2025
FSV Mainz 052 - 0VfB Stuttgart
25 Jan 2025FSV Mainz 05
2 - 0
VfB Stuttgart
31 Aug 2024
VfB Stuttgart3 - 3FSV Mainz 05
31 Aug 2024VfB Stuttgart
3 - 3
FSV Mainz 05
11 Feb 2024
VfB Stuttgart3 - 1FSV Mainz 05
11 Feb 2024VfB Stuttgart
3 - 1
FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga

Gameweek 25

06 Mar • 20:30
FC Bayern München
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4 - 1
07 Mar • 15:30
SC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3 - 3
07 Mar • 15:30
FC Heidenheim
1899 Hoffenheim
2 - 4
07 Mar • 15:30
FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
2 - 2
07 Mar • 15:30
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
2 - 1
07 Mar • 15:30
VfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
1 - 2
07 Mar • 18:30
1. FC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
1 - 2
08 Mar • 15:30
St. Pauli
Eintracht Frankfurt
0 - 0
08 Mar • 17:30
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen
1 - 4

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.